While expectations of a soft landing for the U.S. economy grow, concerns mount over a bleak future for the global economy, weighed down by low growth and soaring debt.

On November 20, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) lowered South Korea's growth forecasts for 2024 amid economic struggles in key nations like China and Germany. Adding to this uncertainty, President-elect Donald Trump’s "America First" policies, including universal tariffs, may exacerbate global economic challenges post-inauguration.

U.S. Economic Performance
The U.S. appears to be navigating a soft landing successfully. Despite aggressive interest rate hikes since 2022 to combat inflation, the Federal Reserve eased rates twice consecutively starting in September 2023. Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen expressed optimism in September, noting the U.S. had managed to lower inflation meaningfully without widespread layoffs.

In Q3, the U.S. economy grew at an annualized 2.8%, slightly below Q2's 3.0% but maintaining a robust trajectory. Wall Street reflected this strength as indices like the Nasdaq, S&P 500, and Dow reached record highs throughout the year.

Global Economic Struggles
The IMF recently revised South Korea’s 2024 growth forecast to 2.0%, down from 2.2%, with 2023 growth estimated at 2.2%. Globally, growth stagnation looms, with the IMF projecting growth rates of 3.2% for both 2023 and 2024, and a slight dip to 3.1% by 2029, signaling entrenched low growth compared to the 2006-2015 average of 3.6%.

IMF Managing Director Kristalina Georgieva highlighted the compounded issues of inflation, low growth, and high debt. The IMF predicts global public debt will exceed $100 trillion by the end of the year, equating to 93% of global GDP.

China: Growth is expected to slow from 4.8% in 2023 to 4.5% in 2024 and further to 3.3% by 2029.
Germany: The economy contracted by 0.2% in Q3 year-over-year. Growth projections for 2024 remain weak at 1.2%, with similar trends forecast through 2029.
Japan: While IMF expects a temporary boost to 1.1% growth in 2024, the figure will likely stabilize around 1% through 2029.
Impact of U.S. Policies
Trump’s proposed tariff policies could shrink global economic output by 0.8% in 2024 and 1.3% by 2026, per the IMF. These protectionist measures could harm all parties involved, including the U.S., by raising trade barriers.

The global economy remains at a crossroads, with the U.S. maintaining resilience as other major economies grapple with entrenched challenges.