With the presidential election approaching, concerns are mounting that protectionism could threaten global economic recovery.

As reported by the Financial Times (FT) on October 28, international economic leaders have voiced concerns that recent moves toward economic protectionism could hinder the global economy’s recovery in the final stretch of the U.S. presidential race.

At the recent IMF and World Bank annual meetings in Washington, D.C., key officials expressed cautious optimism that the global economy is avoiding recession and experiencing a "soft landing" after facing extreme inflation.

Agustín Carstens, General Manager of the Bank for International Settlements (BIS), warned, “New efforts to reverse globalization and return to protectionism are troubling.” He added that such trends could drive up prices, increase unemployment, and stifle growth. Some attendees warned that the rules-based world trade order established under the Bretton Woods system, which is now 80 years old, could face instability.

The razor-thin poll margins between Republican candidate Donald Trump and Democratic Vice President Kamala Harris have heightened concerns. If Trump wins, the U.S., the world’s largest economy, could undergo a dramatic policy shift next year.

Trump has pledged to impose a flat 20% tariff on all imports and a 60% tax specifically on Chinese imports. He has also promised large-scale deportations of undocumented immigrants and sweeping tax cuts.

The IMF has attempted to quantify the potential damage of a global trade war resulting from tariffs imposed by the U.S., Europe, and China. According to IMF projections, the global economy is expected to grow by 3.2% this year and next, but these numbers could drop significantly, with a 0.8% decline in 2025 and a 1.3% decline in 2026, driven by tariffs, reduced migration, and rising borrowing costs.

Economists from Morgan Stanley predict that Trump’s tariff plan could reduce the U.S. GDP growth rate by 1.4% and increase consumer prices by 0.9%. Similarly, the Yale Budget Institute estimates that Trump’s trade policies could impose a cost of up to $760 billion on households due to inflation.